Market Forecast: ADP Employment, Mortgage Applications, Construction Spending

Blog posted On December 31, 2018

The US government is still partially shutdown, due to a spending dispute regarding a proposed $5 billion border wall.  This week, markets will be closed on Tuesday in observance of New Year’s Day.  The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release its mortgage application survey on Thursday, after last week’s hiatus.  The ADP employment report and US construction spending are also scheduled to come out on Thursday. 

The ADP employment report is based on data from approximately 400,000 US businesses employing approximately 23 million workers nationwide.  Though the data subset is limited to private businesses using the ADP payroll system, it is still used to gauge employment trends.  In November, the ADP employment report showed the addition of 179,000 jobs. 

The MBA mortgage applications survey tracks week to week changes in new purchase and refinance mortgage application submissions.  For the week ending 12/14, new purchase application submissions declined 7.0% and refinance application submissions declined 2.0% for a composite decrease of 5.8%. 

US construction spending tracks total spending on all private and public construction projects.  In October, construction spending decreased -0.1% month-over-month and improved 4.9% year-over-year.  Construction activity was driven by multi-family residential construction.  

The partial government shutdown will continue to impact the release of some economic indicators.  The US construction spending report could be delayed if the shutdown lasts through Thursday. 

Sources: CNBC, Econoday, MarketWatch, Mortgage News Daily, Reuters